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Elections are now in progress for parliamentary elections in the Netherlands, with current polling data suggesting that the anti-immigration leader Geert Wilders and his Freedom party (PVV) may repeat their emerge victorious, though experts suggest PVV stands little chance of joining the next government.

Polling Trends and Election Dynamics

The PVV, which in the last election pulled off a surprise first-place finish and established a four-party all-conservative coalition that collapsed within a year, is now marginally ahead in the polls and is forecast to secure between 24 to 28 seats in the 150-member parliament.

However, the far-right party's support has dipped since the previous election, when it won 37 seats. All major parties have stated they will not forming a government with Wilders, and who triggered the fall of the previous government in the summer over a dispute concerning his radical anti-refugee proposals.

Major Parties and Projections

Following a election period focused on topics such as immigration, healthcare costs, and the nation's severe housing shortage, the left-leaning GL/PvdA coalition, led by former European commissioner Frans Timmermans, is placed a near second, projected to gain between 22 to 26 parliamentary seats.

Also performing well is the centrist D66, projected to increase its seat count by almost five times to 21-25 seats, while the centre-right Christian Democrats (CDA) is anticipated to significantly increase its number of MPs to between 18 to 22.

Members of the previous government – which included the Freedom Party, liberal-conservative VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and centrist New Social Contract (NSC) – are all forecast to see their representation reduced, with some experiencing significant losses.

Electoral System and Fragmentation

In the proportional Dutch system, securing just 0.67% of the national vote yields a party one MP. Among the two dozen political groups contesting the election – including senior-focused parties, for youth, animal rights parties, for a universal basic income, and for sport – up to 16 may gain entry to the legislature.

This high degree of division ensures that no single party is expected to win a majority, and the Netherlands has been governed by coalitions – often including four parties in recent governments – for over 100 years.

Government Formation

The PVV leader claimed that "democracy will be dead" in the country if the PVV ends up as the biggest group yet is shut out of government. But, critics and analysts argue that winning the most seats does not guarantee government participation and that any coalition with a majority is a democratic outcome.

Although the final outcome is hard to predict and coalition talks may require months, analysts indicate that after the most extreme government in recent memory, the future government is expected to be a broad-based coalition led by either the centre-left or moderate right.

Voting Process

Voting locations, including those in the Madurodam model village in The Hague and the Anne Frank house in the capital city, began operations at 7.30am (6.30am GMT) and will conclude at 9pm. A usually accurate exit poll is anticipated soon after closing time.

Once voting concludes, an official negotiator will explore possible coalitions that could command a majority in the legislature. Prospective coalition members will then negotiate an agreement for the coming term and must undergo a confidence vote in parliament before assuming power.